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10x10

Where Are We Now?

In March 2005, the Computer Industry Almanac (C-I-A) estimated the number of personal computers at 820 million, growing to 1 billion until 2007. See http://www.c-i-a.com/pr0305.htm for the state of play in 2004.

According to Dan Kuznetsky of IDC, "OS X has a 2.7 percent market share of client operating environments worldwide. [GNU/]Linux's share is 2.6 percent, and Microsoft holds the rest of the pie.", see MacNewsWorld.

Scenario A:

Let's assume the web polls draw a nearly complete picture: GNOME has a 30% market share among GNU/Linux desktops. Then our position is now:

 0.026 x 0.3 = 0.0078

or 0.78 percent global market share, with

 0.0078 x 820 M = 6,396,000

GNOME desktops installed worldwide.

Scenario B:

Let's assume the web polls underestimates our market share, and GNOME has 50% market share among GNU/Linux desktops. Then, our position is now:

 0.026 x 0.5 = 0.013

or 1.3 percent global market share, with

 0.013 x 820 M = 10,660,000

GNOME desktops installed worldwide.

Ideas about how to more accurately estimate number of GNOME users are being discussed on CountingUsers.

What Must We Do?

GNOME desktops to be installed for 10x10

Year

PC's in-use (Mil)

GNOME in-use (Mil)

New users (Mil)

2004

820

10,66

2005

876

15,99

5,33

2006

936

23,99

8,00

2007

1000

35,98

12,00

2008

1068

53,97

17,99

2009

1141

80,95

26,98

2010

1219

121,42

40,47

To reach 10% global market share until the end of 2010, we need to grow with an average annual rate of 50% in scenario B.

Ideas on how to find out what our current market share/number of users are can be found on the CountingUsers page.

How We Will Get There

Note: this will be cleaned up every once in a while to focus on things GNOME can do.

See also


CategoryMarketing


2024-10-23 10:57